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Hockey East Standingsology: Using KRACH to project the final standings (2/12)

Each week until the end of the regular season, we’ll use the KRACH to project the final point totals for each Hockey East team. You’ll be able to follow along and see who moves up and who moves down, as well as movement as far as potentially playoff lineups.

Using the KRACH, which is a mathematical ranking system that gives us a theoretical winning percentage, we can project the number of points earned from now until the end of the regular season, which gives us a projected final standings and playoff matchups.

It’s important to remember that with so few league games (24), and teams having multiple games remaining, this will change from week to week.

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Boston College is projected to finish in the top spot, edging out Northeastern. But, the top four teams aren’t separated by much, and Maine has a chance to get in the conversation with three games against BC to close out the regular season.

Maine is also projected to finish one game against of UMass Lowell for the final first-round bye.

Current first-round playoff matchups are projected as:

6. UMass Lowell vs. 11. Merrimack
7. Connecticut vs. 10. Massachusetts
8. Vermont vs. 9. New Hampshire

Vermont has been on the rise the last few weeks, after picking up two points against Lowell and then sweeping Merrimack. Now, the Catamounts are projected to host in the first round, which isn’t something anyone would have guessed just a few weeks ago. The Catamounts are undefeated in their last seven games (5-0-2).

From a Merrimack perspective, the Warriors have a steep uphill climb for home ice in the first round. Merrimack might need to make up as many as three games over the last four, if Vermont continues to get points. The Warriors are five points out of home ice with eight points remaining on the schedule, and Vermont (currently in 8th) has the tie-breaker with the Warriors. UMass has the tie-breaker as well.

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