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Hockey East Standingsology: Using the KRACH to project the final HEA standings (2/6)

Each week until the end of the regular season, we’ll use the KRACH to project the final point totals for each Hockey East team. You’ll be able to follow along and see who moves up and who moves down, as well as movement as far as potentially playoff lineups.

Using the KRACH, which is a mathematical ranking system that gives us a theoretical winning percentage, we can project the number of points earned from now until the end of the regular season, which gives us a projected final standings and playoff matchups.

It’s important to remember that with so few league games (24), and most teams having multiple games remaining (some with as much as 33% of a team’s schedule), this will change from week to week. The likelihood of the final standings looking exactly as we project them today is slim, but this is still a fun way to follow the end of the season, watching who the biggest movers are.

RankTeamPointsLast Week
1Boston College341
2Northeastern322
3Providence314
4Boston University283
5Maine255
6Connecticut247
7UMass Lowell226
8Vermont188
9Massachusetts17T-9
T-10Merrimack1611
T-10New Hampshire16T-9

Boston College and Northeastern are currently projected to finish in a first-place tie atop the league. Right now, they’ve split the season series. Merrimack and UVM are projected to tie for 10th, meaning UVM’s sweep over the Warriors this past weekend could prove to be huge.

Current first-round playoff matchups are projected to be the following:

6. UMass Lowell vs. 11. UMass
7. UConn vs. 10. Merrimack
8. New Hampshire vs. 9. Vermont

Northeastern is currently projected to win the league, nearly edging out Boston College. Last week, the Huskies and Eagles were projected to finish in a first-place tie atop the league.

 

From a Merrimack perspective, the Warriors are projected to finish 10th, one point ahead of UMass. That means tonight’s game against the Minutemen is obviously huge, and right now, it could mean the difference between playing at UMass Lowell or at UConn in the first round. Those matchups are entirely different, and the Warriors match up better with UConn, in my opinion.

Mike McMahon is in his 12th year covering Merrimack College for The Eagle Tribune and is the founder and managing editor of The Mack Report. Mike also serves on staff as a senior writer at College Hockey News. Follow him on Twitter @MikeMcMahonCHN

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2018-19 Men’s Hockey Schedule

October
5 - vs. Lake Superior State (7pm)
6 - vs. Lake Superior State (7pm)
27 - vs. UMass (Homecoming) (7pm)

December
28 - vs. Denver (7pm)
31 - vs. Colorado College (4pm)

February
22 - @ UMass Lowell
23 - vs. UMass Lowell

Date Undetermined
TBD - @ Bentley
TBD - vs. Holy Cross

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