Puck Prospectus’ Tom Award wrote a fantasy article on his website Sunday, breaking down shot quality in the NHL as it relates to whether teams have the lead, are tied, or are trailing in a game.
According to the article, teams with the lead shoot the puck over 15 percent less, yet get higher-quality shots than teams that are losing or tied.
It also finds a direct correlation to goalies playing on bad teams, and their save percentage suffering. Award suggests that goalies on bad teams are more susceptible to “dangerous” shots while the team tries to get back in a games in which its losing; whereas goalies on good teams might face more shots, but the quality is less so the save percentage goes in the upwards direction.
It’s really an amazing read and a lot of tireless research that went into putting it together, I’m sure. Check it out.