Basketball Preview: Merrimack opens MAAC play at Canisius and Niagara

Merrimack will play its first MAAC basketball games this weekend. The Warriors will travel to Western New York to face Canisius and Niagara.

Budd Clark enters this weekend as the reigning MAAC Player of the Week after he averaged 22.8 points per game in three games for the Warriors last week.

Details: Merrimack vs. Canisius

When: Friday, 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Koessler Athletic Center (2,176)
Where: Buffalo, N.Y.
Watch: ESPN+

Details: Merrimack vs. Niagara

When: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Venue: Gallagher Center (2,400)
Where: Niagara, N.Y.
Watch: ESPN+

Inside the Numbers

Series History: This will be the first meeting between Merrimack and both of these programs.

Storylines

— Canisius is 7-3 in its last 10 MAAC openers. The streak dates back to 2014. Last season the Griffins beat Quinnipiac 93-73 in the opener. Tana Kopa is the only member of the Griffins to have faced Merrimack, back when he was with Long Island and the Sharks and Warriors were part of the NEC.

— Paul McMillan IV enters tonight’s game second in the MAAC with 19.6 points per game. McMillan is Canisius’ top offensive player, and his scoring average is No. 30 in the nation. McMillan is a two-time transfer. In 2022-23, he was a freshman at NJIT and averaged 5.8 points in 17.0. minutes per game. Last season, he appeared in 31 games for Central Michigan, averaging 8.3 points in 21.8 minutes. He’s now a starter for the Griffins.

— Budd Clark enters tonight’s game ranked as one of the best players in the country in several offensive categories. Clark is No. 5 nationally in possession percentage, No. 26 in shots percentage, and No. 32 in assist rate.

— Just like it’s easy to be fooled by Merrimack’s 2-6 record, don’t be fooled by Canisius’ 0-8 record. The Griffins have played three top-100 teams (Arizona, St. Bonaventure, and Maryland). The only “bad loss” on their record was a 62-52 defeat against D-I newcomer Mercyhurst.

— Niagara’s 3-5 record includes a win over D-III Houghton, so they’re 2-5 in D-I games. They have wins over Binghamton and Long Island with a top-100 loss against Michigan State.

— Entering league play, KenPom projects the Warriors to finish 12-8 in the MAAC and second behind Saint Peter’s (13-7). Niagara is projected to go 9-11 in league games, and Canisius is projected to go 5-15.

Using the site’s efficiency ratings, KenPom sets the Warriors as a 7-point favorite against Canisius (71-64) and a 3-point favorite against Niagara (65-62).

— A name to watch in Sunday’s matchup is Olumide Adelodun, a 6-foot-5 forward originally from Calgary. Adelodun was at Ohio the last two seasons and transferred to Niagara, where he’s become a regular in the lineup for the Purple Eagles. He’s currently one of the top rebounders in the MAAC.

Keys for the Warriors

(1) Avoid foul trouble. The Warriors have put themselves in foul trouble over the last few weeks. They average 18.4 fouls per game (No. 255 in the country). The issue this weekend is they’re facing good free-throw shooting teams. Canisius is No. 18 in the country in free-throw percentage, and Niagara is No. 144.

(2) Create chaos and generate turnovers. We can probably just leave this as a key every night, right? To no one’s surprise, the Warriors have a big advantage in this category. The Warriors are No. 44 in the nation in turnovers created, and Canisius is No. 303 in preventing turnovers. Niagara is No. 191 in preventing turnovers.

(3) Be versatile in how they attack offensively. Canisius is No. 355 in 2-point defense, and Niagara is No. 281 in 3-point defense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Budd Clark have a big night on Friday with his ability to drive, pull up, and shoot. Sunday could be a day where Devon Savage and Matt Becht shine from 3-point land.