Belfast Takeaways: The math isn't adding up

Merrimack fell to Harvard 4-2 in the consolation game of the Friendship Four in Belfast on Saturday.

David Sacco scored twice for the Warriors and finished the weekend with three goals.

Here are my takeaways from the weekend in Northern Ireland:

— The math ain’t mathing, when it comes to the analytics.

CHN’s xG model had the Warriors ahead of opponents 5.5-5.1 this weekend. The Warriors scored 1.5 goals less than expected and allowed 3.9 more than expected.

Excluding empty-net goals, the Warriors had a 30.8 GF% (4-9) but had a 52.0 SOG% (66-61).

At 5v5, the Warriors had a 30.0 GF% (3-7) and a 51.1 SOG% (53-50).

So what does that mean?

The Warriors aren’t getting territorially outplayed. That’s usually the issue when a team is 3-9-1 through 13 games. And truthfully, territorial lopsidedness was a big issue for the Warriors through the Maine weekend last month.

But recently — and including this weekend — the ice hasn’t been tilted against the Warriors. They’ve made adjustments, and they’re winning more 50/50 battles, specifically at the defensive blue line.

The issue right now is defensive breakdowns and some lack of finish offensively.

Most of the goals allowed this weekend were the product of defensive breakdowns, but not necessarily long sustained pressure that resulted in those breakdowns.

And then, as I wrote in our preview, the Warriors need their goalies to make saves on every puck they see and a few that they don’t.

Here are the full numbers:

There are some encouraging things there. The SOG% and xGF% were in Merrimack’s favor. The Warriors were essentially even in faceoffs.

They were negative in the column that mattered: actual goals scored. That’s because of those breakdowns, and it filters back to all six guys on the ice.

But the current issues aren’t the same as those that existed in the Maine series. The Warriors have generally fixed their game coming out of that Maine series.