MAAC Playoff Picture: Merrimack in the driver's seat for third, need help to finish top two
There are two weeks left in the MAAC regular season, and the Merrimack men’s basketball team has three critical games in its quest to finish in first place.
Merrimack’s recent three-game losing streak did damage its hopes for the top spot in the conference, but there is still an outside chance the Warriors can secure the top seed in the MAAC Tournament. It will likely require the Warriors to finish the season 3-0.
The Warriors (12-5) are 1.5 games behind Marist and Quinnipiac (13-3) entering this weekend. Merrimack has three games left, and Marist and Quinnipiac have four.
Merrimack hosts Rider on Friday night and will close out the season with games against Quinnipiac (Sunday at home) and Marist (next Thursday on the road).
If the Warriors go 3-0, that will get them to 15-5.
The issue is tie-breakers. In a three-way tie, Marist would be the No. 1 seed. Three-way ties are considered “mini-conferences” for tie-breaking purposes. Marist would be 2-1, Merrimack 2-2, and Quinnipiac 1-2.
In a tie with Marist, the head-to-head matchup would be 1-1. The MAAC would then look at records against the next highest seed, which would very likely be Quinnipiac. Merrimack would be 1-1 in this scenario, and Marist would be 1-0.
In a 1-on-1 tie with Quinnipiac, Merrimack would likely win the tie-breaker. This scenario requires a win over Quinnipiac on Sunday, so the head-to-head matchup would be 1-1. Assuming Marist finishes third in this scenario, the Warriors would be 1-1, and Quinnipiac would be 0-1.
So simply put:
The Warriors either need to win the MAAC outright or finish in a tie with Quinnipiac.
Regardless, they need Marist to lose three out of their last four games.
That’s not out of the question. KenPom has Marist going 3-1 over their final four games, but they have two of those wins as 1-point margins.
Regardless, the Warriors need help to finish in the top spot, and the probability reflects that.
Odds at First Place:
Marist, 72%
Quinnipiac, 26%
Merrimack, 2%
Mount St. Mary’s <1%
Merrimack’s Odds per Position:
1st - 2%
2nd - 10%
3rd - 64%
4th - 22%
5th - 2%
6th - <1%