Merrimack likely to face Northeastern, could face New Hampshire in Hockey East first round
Merrimack will finish as the No. 10 or No. 11 seed in Hockey East. That will be determined this weekend.
Here are the scenarios:
Merrimack will finish as the No. 10 seed with ...
A win over BC and UMass Lowell earning at most 5/6 points from New Hampshire.
A loss to BC and UMass Lowell earning at most 2/6 points from New Hampshire.
That leaves only two potential opponents for the Warriors in Wednesday's first round of the Hockey East playoffs (March 13).
Northeastern: The Huskies are the most likely scenario. There is a 97 percent chance Northeastern finishes as the No. 7 seed and a 62 percent chance Merrimack finishes as the No. 10 seed. Merrimack could still match up against Northeastern in a 6-11 scenario.
New Hampshire: If the Warriors match up with New Hampshire, it's likely to be a 6 vs. 11 game. UNH has the inside track on the No. 6 seed, but they can still finish as high as No. 5.
There is a chance Providence can fall to the No. 6 seed, but in that scenario, the Warriors would be the No. 10 seed. For Providence to finish No. 6, New Hampshire would have to sweep UMass Lowell, keeping the River Hawks behind the Warriors in the standings.
So, while the Friars could finish No. 6 and the Warriors could finish No. 11, there isn't a scenario where they both finish in those seeds together. If the Friars fall to the No. 6 seed, Merrimack would remain the No. 10 seed because UMass Lowell would lose all six points to UNH.