Merrimack's Hockey East playoff scenarios heading into the final night of the regular season
The Warriors have the night off, but there will be plenty to watch on the Hockey East scoreboard.
Merrimack is the only team in the league idle tonight, and the results elsewhere will determine its opponent for Wednesday’s first round of the Hockey East playoffs.
The Warriors will finish either seventh or eighth in the standings and will host either UMass Lowell or New Hampshire at Lawler Arena. That much we know.
First, the seeding scenario — which is relatively straightforward.
Merrimack will finish seventh if Northeastern earns two points or fewer tonight at Boston College.
Merrimack will finish eighth if Northeastern earns three points tonight at Boston College.
The Warriors hold a two-point lead over the Huskies and own the tiebreaker, so Northeastern must collect three points to leapfrog Merrimack in the standings.
From Merrimack’s perspective, the difference between seventh and eighth could be significant. If the Warriors finish eighth and all of the higher seeds advance in the opening round, Merrimack would travel to No. 1 Providence in the quarterfinals. A seventh-place finish would instead send the Warriors to either UConn, UMass, or Boston College.
The opponent scenarios are more complicated, but they can still be sorted out.
If the Warriors finish seventh
Merrimack will host UMass Lowell if:
Lowell (vs. Boston University) and New Hampshire (at Boston College) both earn three points tonight.
Lowell earns one or two points and New Hampshire earns at least one point.
Lowell earns zero points.
Merrimack will host New Hampshire if:
New Hampshire earns one or two points and UMass Lowell earns two points or more.
New Hampshire earns zero points and UMass Lowell earns at least one point.
If the Warriors finish eighth
Merrimack will host UMass Lowell if:
UMass Lowell earns three points and New Hampshire earns two points or fewer.
UMass Lowell earns one or two points and New Hampshire earns zero points.
Merrimack will host New Hampshire if:
New Hampshire earns three points.
New Hampshire earns one or two points and UMass Lowell earns two points or fewer.
New Hampshire earns zero points and UMass Lowell earns zero points.
In short, the opponent picture is a bit messy.
From Merrimack’s standpoint, the bigger priority is finishing seventh rather than eighth, simply because it creates the possibility of avoiding Providence in the second round of the playoffs.
The Friars have been the class of the league down the stretch, going 16–5–2 since December and building a commanding 10-point lead over UConn atop the Hockey East standings.