Preview: Merrimack opens a two-game home weekend against Vermont

The Warriors can potentially clinch home ice in the Hockey East first round this weekend

The Warriors open a two-game weekend series against Vermont tonight at Lawler Arena. Merrimack holds a 1–0 edge in the season series against the Catamounts, courtesy of a Dec. 29 win in Burlington.

Game Details

When: Friday 7 p.m., Saturday 6 p.m.
Where (Friday): Lawler Arena (North Andover, Mass.)
TV/Stream: Watch (ESPN+) » Watch (INTL)

Team Statistics

TMR Game Notes

— The Warriors enter the weekend with a clear opportunity to lock up home ice in the first round of the Hockey East playoffs. A sweep of Vermont, combined with New Hampshire earning no more than three points against Providence, would be enough for Merrimack to clinch home ice heading into the final weekend of the regular season.

— As for the broader playoff picture, here’s where things stand. Merrimack sits eighth with 26 points, one point clear of UMass Lowell, and the Warriors hold a game in hand on the River Hawks, with the two teams set to meet next week. The cushion is more comfortable behind them: a three-point edge on New Hampshire, with Merrimack owning the tiebreaker, and a five-point lead on Vermont.

From here, the Warriors’ range of outcomes is wide. They can finish anywhere from fourth to 11th in the final standings, though they have been mathematically eliminated from finishing in the top three.

Based on current standings and projected results, the probabilities shake out as follows:

4th: 1%
5th: 8%
6th: 22%
7th: 19%
8th: 34%
9th: 10%
10th: 4%
11th: 2%

Put simply, Merrimack has a 9% chance of earning a first-round bye, a 75% chance of hosting a first-round playoff game, and a 16% chance of hitting the road when the Hockey East playoffs begin in two weeks.