Preview: Merrimack opens the season at Air Force on national TV

A new era for Merrimack football begins on Saturday when the Warriors travel to Air Force to take on the Falcons in an FBS matchup on national television (CBS Sports Network).

Mike Gennetti will take the field for the first time as Merrimack’s head coach after nearly two decades of service on the staff as the top assistant in charge of the defense.

In addition, the Warriors begin their first season as an FCS independent following their departure from the NEC at the end of last season and the rest of the programs joining the MAAC (which doesn’t sponsor football).

TMR Pod #116: Previewing Merrimack vs. Air Force football, plus offseason updates on men's basketball and hockey

Merrimack vs. Air Force

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
Watch: CBS Sports Network
Venue: Falcon Stadium (cap. 46,692)
Location: USAFA, Colo.
2023 Records: Merrimack 5-6, Air Force 9-4

History: This will be the first meeting between the programs.

Know the Foe: Air Force

The Falcons run a complicated scheme to defend (the triple option), and they went 9-4 last season out of the Mountain West Conference. Air Force started 8-0 before collapsing in November, with four straight losses to Army, Hawaii, UNLV, and Boise State before a win over James Madison in the Armed Forces Bowl.

Offensively, the Falcons returned one starter, and their top three returning wideouts caught a COMBINED 27 passes. That speaks more to Air Force’s ability to run the ball. Don’t expect a barrage of big plays, but the Falcons will try to sneak a receive over the top after a healthy dose of runs. Air Force’s offense generally revolves around running the ball and controlling the clock.

The Falcons lost their top two running backs from last year, but they returned Dylan Carlson, who averaged over seven yards per carry and had almost 500 yards in the season in 2023.

Air Force will also have an entirely new offensive line.

That’s why I think Merrimack can keep this game close (see the betting line below), particularly in the first half. New running backs and a new offensive line may take a few series to get in sync.

Air Force’s defense was one of the best in college football last season, ranking No. 6 in the nation in yards allowed (277 per game), which speaks to their ability and the offense’s ability to control the clock and limit possessions. The defense returns three starters.

Three Things to Watch

1) Who will start at QB for the Warriors?

As of last week, Gennetti had yet to name a starter between returners Gavin McCusker and Malakai Anthony. Both QBs played last season.

McCusker became the starter in 2022 after he took over for Jack Zergiotis. He led the Warriors to seven straight wins that season and threw for 10 touchdowns and just three interceptions. An injury ended his season early last year, and made way for Anthony to become the starter. Before he was hurt, McCusker appeared in five games and was 38 for 88 (43.2%) for 474 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.

Anthony took over for McCusker after the injury and played in seven games. He went 49 for 101 (48.5%) for 795 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.

Both quarterbacks have dual-threat ability. Anthony rushed for 173 yards on 39 carries (3.1 YPC) and three touchdowns. McCusker went for 160 yards on 47 carries and three touchdowns.

2) Can Jermaine Corbett and Brendon Wyatt replace Tyvon Edmonds Jr. out of the backfield?

Edmonds transferred to Robert Morris for his senior year after rushing for 1,247 yards last season on 279 carries (4.5 YPC) and 10 touchdowns. He was the go-to man for Merrimack out of the backfield.

But the Warriors returned sophomore Brendon Wyatt, who played a significant role as a true freshman last season and was effective. He carried the ball 56 times for 295 yards (5.3 YPC) and two touchdowns.

The Warriors may also use its best offensive threat - Donovan Wadley - out of the backfield. Wadley is on the Walter Payton Award (FCS Heisman) preseason watch list and is an explosive threat who can line up as a receiver and running back, and he’s a headache for teams to defend in the return game.

Finally, don’t sleep on transfer Jermaine Corbett. He’s undersized but powerful at 5-foot-9 and 195 pounds, and he was a terror in open space last year for Stonehill. He finished last season averaging 4.7 yards per carry (895 yards on 191 carries) with nine touchdowns; he averaged 111.9 yards per game as a runner, and he also caught 21 passes for 174 yards.

3) Nicholas Lenon will anchor the defense, and he could put himself on the map with a big year

There aren’t many players in college football left who pre-date COVID, but Nicholas Lenon is on that list thanks to the fifth year of eligibility and a redshirt year. He was Merrimack’s breakout rookie star in 2019 on the defensive line (appeared in all 11 games) and has developed into a legit pro prospect at DE for the Warriors.

What’s even more impressive is he wasn’t even moved to the edge until his senior year of high school.

Lenon had pro interest in the spring, but returned to Merrimack for his final season of eligibility. That interest has only heated up in recent months. He recorded 28 tackles last season and two sacks.

He’ll anchor a defense that was one of the best in the FCS last season. The Warriors were top-five in several categories, including No. 1 in third-down defense, No. 4 in first downs allowed, No. 5 in overall yards allowed, and No. 5 in passing yards allowed.

Word out of camp is that they want to be better against the run heading into the season. The Warriors were already highly ranked against the run (No. 35 in FCS out of 122 teams).

Lenon packs a lot of power into his game and can control the line of scrimmage.

Betting Lines

Merrimack: +30.5 (-105)
Air Force: -30.5 (-115)

Over/Under: 47.5 (-110)

I’d lean taking the 30.5 points with Merrimack in this matchup. That’s a lot of points! Air Force beat Robert Morris by 35 points on opening weekend last season (42-7), and Merrimack was the better team in 2023. RMU went 4-7 (2-4 in the Big Sky), and Merrimack was 5-6 (4-3 in the NEC). Lynchburg was a common opponent, which Merrimack and RMU beat by 40+ points. The only difference was RMU beat Saint Francis at home, and Merrimack lost a close game to Saint Francis on the road.

In an FBS matchup toward the end of last year, Merrimack kept within 10 points against UMass (31-21). There are other factors here, like the altitude in Colorado, but this number is inflated because the Warriors are an FCS team on the road with a new head coach. Merrimack’s new head coach is a returning staff member in charge of a defense that only allowed more than 30 points twice last season (45-34 win over Stonehill and a 31-21 loss to UMass).

Remember, we just wrote a few paragraphs above that Merrimack was one of the top FCS defenses last season, and a big chunk of those players return (particularly on the line).

Whoever ends up as Merrimack’s starting QB is a returning starter familiar with the system, and defenses are usually ahead of offenses early in the year. The total is only 47.5 points, which is odd given a 30+ point spread.