Vermont beat Northeastern 1-0 last night at Gutterson Fieldhouse, which made Merrimack’s path a little more clear, at least in the Hockey East standings.
First though, the Vermont win managed to bump the Warriors up two spots in the Pairwise. As of this morning, the Warriors are ranked No. 17, and theoretically just two spots out of a potential at-large NCAA Tournament berth. Merrimack’s odds of making the NCAA Tournament jumped to 18 percent thanks to last night’s result.
Currently, if the Warriors win out but lose in the conference championship game, they would have a 78 percent chance of making the tournament.
In Hockey East, the Warriors can still finish anywhere from 1-6 in the final standings. Due to the strength of opponents remaining, most simulation models have the Warriors finishing fifth or sixth, but they do have roughly a 38 percent chance of finishing in the top-4.
Merrimack’s biggest issue in the Hockey East standings is tie-breakers.