Where Merrimack's senior class ranks in program history
The group might be small, but this senior class has some of the best numbers in the D-I/HEA era of the program
Merrimack’s senior class is small, but the group will graduate this spring as one of the most successful classes in the program’s D-I/Hockey East history.
Merrimack honored Mark Hillier, Ivan Zivlak, and Michael Citara on Senior Night two weeks ago, when they played Vermont. Hillier and Zivlak have been at Merrimack for four years, and Citara joined the program in 2023.
KRACH
The most challenging thing in sports is comparing players (or teams) from different eras. Views are always skewed by recency, and comparing things like the strength of schedule across multiple years is challenging.
Luckily in college hockey, we have KRACH. It’s a ranking system that I personally believe is better than the Pairwise, but that’s for another column.
KRACH takes all the data on team performance and reduces it to one number: wins, losses, ties, and strength of schedule. This is the meatiest part of team performance.
This is an excellent tool because we can use the KRACH rating to compare teams historically.
For example, Merrimack is 13-18-1 this season (so far). In 2016, the Warriors went 13-19-7.
Those records seem similar, right? In fact, you might even argue that 2016 was slightly better because of the large number of ties.
Wrong.
Merrimack’s KRACH rating this season is 130.1. This is due to the strength of its schedule, with Hockey East’s overall strength having the biggest impact.
Merrimack’s KRACH rating in 2016 was 79.9, which is nearly 50 percent less than its current rating.
Merrimack’s current rating is the seventh-highest in the program’s history (the KRACH dates back to 1996). This senior class has the No. 7, No. 3, and No. 5 KRACH seasons all-time.
Moreover, their average KRACH rating in their four seasons (133.7) is No. 4 all-time, trailing only the classes of 2014 (148.2), 2013 (168.3), and 2012 (157.4).
Here are Merrimack’s Top 10 KRACH seasons (the only 10 seasons in program history where the KRACH rating has been above 100):
2010-11 (Dennehy): 225.9
2011-12 (Dennehy): 208.1
2022-23 (Borek): 172.6
1996-97 (Anderson): 152.3
2009-10 (Dennehy): 134.6
2021-22 (Borek): 134.2
2024-25 (Borek): 130.1
2016-17 (Dennehy): 119.6
2014-15 (Dennehy): 115.6
2012-13 (Dennehy): 104.5This rating includes the strength of schedule from every individual season. So despite Merrimack’s up-and-down first half, there’s a strong mathematical argument to be made that this season is the seventh-best season in the D-I/HEA era, primarily due to Merrimack’s Hockey East success in a league that has been the toughest in the nation this season.
This senior class has three of the top seven seasons in the program’s D-I/HEA history.
The only class that comes close is the 2012 class, which had three of the top six.
That’s impressive.
Pairwise
The NCAA uses Pairwise to select and seed teams for the NCAA Tournament. It’s another year-by-year ranking system that considers the strength of schedule, home-road balance, etc. Personally, I think KRACH does a better job of ranking teams, but considering the NCAA uses Pairwise, how does this class stack up against others?
This senior class has an average Pairwise ranking of 24.8 over its four seasons, including Merrimack’s current No. 28 ranking.
Only the class of 2013 (21.8) has a better four-year average. This class is tied with the class of 2012.
Merrimack’s Top 5 Classes by Pairwise Average
2013: 21.8
2025: 24.8
2012: 24.8
2014: 26.5
2023: 27.3Merrimack’s Top 10 Pairwise Seasons (goes back to 2002)
2011 (Dennehy): 6th
2023 (Borek): 14th
2012 (Dennehy): 17th
2022 (Borek): 22nd
2025 (Borek): 28th
2017 (Dennehy): 30th
2015 (Dennehy): 30th
2010 (Dennehy): 30th
2013 (Dennehy): 34th
2024 (Borek): 35thThe NCAA did not use the Pairwise in 2020-21 due to COVID (teams only played conference games).
This senior class has three of the five best Pairwise finishes in Merrimack’s history.
What I didn’t realize until I was putting numbers together on this class ... Scott Borek is in his seventh season but only six of those seasons will have been tracked by the Pairwise because of the 2021 exception. Four of his six trackable seasons are inside the Top 10 for the program’s history. The only two seasons not in the Top 10 were his first two seasons.
Historical context is important. In the Pairwise, Merrimack has only been Top 30 four times in the 23 years the ranking system has existed. If the Warriors stay above No. 30 this season, it will be the fifth time.
In the 30 years since KRACH was tracked, the Warriors have only had a rating of 100 or better in 10 seasons (including this one).
That’s what makes this class's accomplishments impressive. They did things that only a few others have been able to do since the program became Division I and joined Hockey East in 1989.
That’s not a subjective opinion. Those are mathematical facts.
What’s next?
We’ll see.
The Warriors have to finish out this season and have a chance to clinch home ice on Thursday night against Northeastern.
Individually, Ivan Zivlak’s eligibility will expire with his graduation (unless the NCAA passes the fifth year of eligibility before next season). Given their injuries this season, Mark Hillier and Michael Citara could apply for medical redshirts.
Whatever happens next, this group will graduate as one of the most successful classes in the D-I/HEA era of the program.
Well done.